My forecast for the Euro knockout stages:Quarter-finals
Quarter-final: Portugal v Croatia
Portugal's squad look stronger & more experienced than Croatia's, so I would expect them to win the tie. It would be dangerous to underestimate the Croatians, especially when they have quality in their ranks. Croatia are much better than they were at the 2006 World Cup - had the current side played at that World Cup, Croatia would have got past the group stage. Their midfield, in particular, is creative, with such players as Modric & Kranjcar. However, the Portuguese have creative players, too: Deco, Quaresma, Simao, Nani & you-know-who (Cristiano Ronaldo, of course). By the knockout stages, Croatia will really feel the absence of Eduardo. Portugal might not have a truly outstanding out-and-out striker, but that should not matter in this tie given the way they attack in numbers, especially with their good use of the wings. Portugal's stronger defence will tip the tie in their balance: Croatia midfielders & forwards will give Portugal some difficult moments, but it is harder to see Croatia's defence coping with Portugal's attacking stars.
Winner: Portugal
Quarter-final: Germany v Switzerland
Germany will be too strong for the Swiss. Even with home advantage, I cannot see Switzerland beating the Germans. What I can see, however, is Switzerland making this a close & hard-fought match. The Swiss suffered a heavy 4-0 home defeat to Germany in a friendly a few months ago. I expect the match to be a lot closer this time. Switzerland's defence will have to be on their guard against Germany's dangerous forwards Podolski, Gomez & Klose. However valiantly they play, I think Germany will still eventually penetrate the Swiss defence. Also significant is the fact that the Swiss attack look considerably less dangerous compared to the Germans. While some see Germany's defence as far from rock solid, the question remains as to whether the Swiss forwards are good enough to take advantage. I have my doubts, & would expect Germany to advance to the semi-finals.
Winner: Germany
Quarter-final: France v Russia
Russia arguably have their best squad for many years, & the level of Russian football is on the rise. However, when one compares the squads of Russia & France, the French have better players. More importantly, France have much greater tournament experience than the Russians, given France's overall success in tournaments over the last 10 years. The experience factor looks to be the most glaring difference between the squads, & it will probably decide the tie in France's favour. The French appear to have too many options & match winners for the Russians to cope with. While Russia's attacking players can pose the French some problems, they do not possess the tightest defence in Europe, & I cannot see them keeping the likes of Ribery, Benzema, Henry & Anelka at bay. The French defence may be ageing, but they will more than make up for the lack of pace with their experience & excellent positioning sense. Russia will lose this match, but not be disgraced.
Winner: France
Quarter-final: Spain v Italy
Sadly, I see Spain suffering stage fright in the quarter-final & make another premature tournament exit. Both sides met in a friendly match a few months ago, & the Spaniards won 1-0. But that was a friendly. When it comes to a tournament knockout stage, put your money on the Italians. With Donadoni as coach, Italy might be adventurous & not conform to the old defensive catennacio stereotype. But in this all-Mediterranean tie, one would expect Spain to be the more adventurous, the more entertaining & the more attack-minded side. Because that is how Spain always play. I suspect, however, that the Italians have more experience than the Spaniards, & they will have the know-how & ability to cope with Spain's attacks. They will look to hit Spain on the counter-attack, & I can see them pinch a goal here or there to frustrate the Spaniards. Spain may not be inferior when it comes to talent & quality of players, but when it comes to mental strength, the Italians clearly have the edge. And, that, I think, will decide the tie.
Winner: Italy
Semi-finals
And look at the semi-final cast: Portugal, Germany, France & Italy. It's the same 4 teams that qualified for the semi-finals of the 2006 World Cup. Interesting....
Only difference is that this time, we cannot have a France v Italy final, because these teams are on the same side of the draw, & according to my predictions, will play each other in the semi-finals. The other semi-final will be a replay of the third place play-off at the last World Cup. Both Euro semi-final ties will be very close, & I can definitely see at least 1 match going to extra-time, & perhaps penalty shoot-out.
Semi-final: Portugal v Germany
Some might say Cristiano Ronaldo will decide this tie & take Portugal to their second consecutive Euro final. True, this stage is perfect for Ronaldo to really cement his place among the greatest footballers on the planet today. And no one will be really surprised if he does just that. But one thing must be considered: fatigue. By now, Ronaldo might be suffering from fatigue & tiredness after a long-season with his club. No one doubts his fitness level, but footballers are not robots which can go on & on & on. Then again, Portugal is not just about Ronaldo, & they have other players who can decide matches too. But I think in the semis, Portugal will meet their match. Germany can certainly match the Portuguese in defence & midfield. Though Ronaldo is better than any German player, that doesn't mean the Germans will not find a way to minimise his threat & keep him quiet. It has been done before at club level (Milan in 2007 Champions League semi-final ties). There is no reason why the Germans can't come up with a system or game plan to restrict Ronaldo. Where the tie might be decided is in attack, where the Germans have better strikers than Portugal. There might not be many goals in this match, but I can see the Germans scoring more than they concede. Just one more than the opponent will be enough.
Winner: Germany (possibly after extra-time)
Semi-final: France v Italy
By now, France & Italy should be sick of the sight of each other. They traded blows at various international tournaments, most notably the Euro 2000 final (which France won on golden-goal), & 2006 World Cup final (which Italy won on penalties). Then, both sides met again during the qualifying series for Euro 2008. If that's not enough, the draw for the Euro 2008 tournament itself brought both teams together again in Group C. And now, they meet again in the semi-finals!! Almost every match contested by both sides are close affairs. No reason then to expect anything different - in fact, I will be surprised if this semi produces a winner after 90 minutes. This match has extra-time written over it. Both teams are very, very evenly matched - both so strong in every department. Both sides won't like losing to each other, as they don't seem to have much love for each other. So, how to pick a winner? You can almost decide on tossing a coin. It will probably go down to who has the greater desire on the day. France will want revenge for the last World Cup final (Zidane's head butt & all). But if anything, it might be Italy who will have the greater desire for their own revenge. They were so so close to winning Euro 2000 yet ended up losing - up by a goal in the Euro 2000 final & had chances to put the final beyond France, only for the French to equalise in the last minute of regular time, & grabbed the golden goal in extra-time to take the trophy. That heart-breaking loss will still stick in Italian memories, & so arguably they will be the ones who come into this tie with greater motivation. So with both sides so equally balanced, I think Italy will edge it on the back of the desire to make up for Euro 2000.
Winner: Italy (probably after extra-time)
Final
Final: Germany v Italy
And so the final sees a clash between Europe's 2 most successful sides, Germany & Italy. This is a rematch of the 2006 World Cup semi-final, won by Italy after they scored 2 goals in the last 2 minutes of extra-time, just as that match looked set for penalty shoot-out. So this time, it is Germany who has the desire for revenge. Now, not every team that looks to avenge past results succeed in getting the revenge. And I'm sure the Germans will not let the revenge factor get to their heads. The coach will simply get them to focus on football. Furthermore, Germany's players have been pumped up at the prospect of winning the Euro since their World Cup semi-final exit. Historically, when Germany sniff the chance of victory, they rarely let it slip.
Italy's incentive is to add the Euro to their World Cup title. Individually, the Italians have more flair & are probably better than the Germans, but not by such a margin that the Germans cannot make up on. And in any case, having better players doesn't always guarantee victory, as proved by Greece's Euro 2004 triumph. Football is a team game, & since the 2006 World Cup, it is Germany who arguably look more impressive & stronger as a team. Another factor in Germany's favour is the coach - Joachim Low is more experienced & considered tactically more astute than his Italian counterpart. The Italians can point to having a good record against the Germans - remarkably, Italy have never lost to Germany in major international tournaments. On the other hand, the Germans can say that "records" are meant to be broken, that statistics are meant to be changed, & therefore might argue that it's about time they put one over Italy.
Another possible relevant factor is Luca Toni. The Italian striker plays for German champions Bayern Munich, & had a marvellous goal-blazing season with them. He should be first-choice for Italy, & will play unless suspended or injured. With a number of Bayern players in the German squad, the Germans will have insider knowledge of Toni's strengths & weaknesses. So they will know how to counter his strengths & exploit his weaknesses. Both sides have strong squads, with each side have enough weaponry to hurt the other. Look closer, & one might note that Germany might have quicker flank players (the full-backs & wide midfielders) than the Italians, & their pace might stretch the Cannavaro-less Italian defence.
The final will be very close. With so many factors to consider, I tip the Germans to narrowly win it.
Winner: Germany
No comments:
Post a Comment