Sunday, June 6, 2010

World Cup 2010 predictions - Groups A, B, C & D



Group A: South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay, France

When England hosted the 1966 World Cup, their group opponents were Mexico, Uruguay & France. England went on to win that World Cup. So, since those same 3 teams are now in the same group as 2010 hosts South Africa, does this mean that South Africa would win the World Cup? Of course not.

Every World Cup host has managed to reach the knockout stage, but many people see South Africa falling in the group stages, on the basis that their 3 group opponents would prove superior. I am not one of them. It's true that France, Mexico & Uruguay may have better players on paper. But football is not played on paper, & South Africa are not as weak as some think. Home advantage might just help South Africa to qualify for the knockout stages. They can certainly get some encouragement from their displays in the 2009 Confederations Cup they hosted last year, where they only lost narrowly to eventual winners Brazil in the semi-final (0-1, thanks to a late free-kick) & to high flying Spain (2-3 after extra-time). If they can push the Brazilians & Spaniards all the way, then they can be confident of mixing it up with France, Mexico & Uruguay. Also, their current Brazilian coach Carlos Alberto Pareira has won the World Cup before as a coach (with Brazil in 1994), so he knows the pressures that a World Cup can bring. Pareira will surely impart that knowledge to the South African players, which can only help their cause. I think all things considered, South Africa will qualify for the next round, though they may not proceed much further than that.

I also think France will win this group, but only just. True, France did struggle in the European qualifiers. And their popularity among neutrals will have plummeted after the controversial European play-off against Ireland in Paris, where a Thierry Henry handball helped set up France's equaliser in extra-time, allow France to draw 1-1 to qualify & hence dash Ireland's hopes of taking the match to penalty shoot-out. And true, France have not looked convincing in pre-World Cup friendlies. All of that will probably lower expectations among the French football fans & media, & having less pressure could work to France's advantage. While it can be hard to guess whether France will turn up with any sort of form, their squad has enough quality to give anyone a real game if they click. With players like Ribery, Gourcuff, Benzema, Anelka & Henry to call upon, the French must be favoured to at least finish second in the group. My only regret is that Samir Nasri was omitted, for reasons probably only best known to coach Domenech himself. But that aside, they have enough class & experience to get to the knockout stage. Whether they have enough to win the tournament is questionable, but they certainly have enough to win this group. Mexico & Uruguay both have enough talent to qualify for the knockout stage. But both sides are unpredictable, & I think they will finish behind France & South Africa, mainly because both lack the experience of France's footballers & also because South Africa will have home advantage. Mexico have always produced skillful footballers, & their style of play is arguably not too dissimilar to Spain & Argentina - fluid, enterprising short-passing side. I like their style of play. But for all the pretty patterns & stylish combination moves, does Mexico have enough forward firepower to capitalise on their nice approach work? It is questionable. Much will depend on whether young forward Javier Hernandez (who recently signed for Manchester United) can live up to the expectations of their fans. If Mexico play with 2 up front, then Hernandez could well be partnered by an even younger forward - Arsenal's Carlos Vela. More & more Mexican footballers are coming to Europe. But that is only a recent trend, & so Mexico perhaps still lack that experience at the very top level - something which France has in abundance. For that reason, I see Mexico only just miss out on the group stage.

Uruguay have more players based in Europe than Mexico, & in Diego Forlan & Luis Suarez, they have a sharper & more experienced attack than the Mexicans. But overall, they are arguably less creative than Mexico in midfield - while the Mexican midfielders can share creative duties, Uruguay's midfield creativity will depend considerably on young Nicolas Lodeiro. Uruguay will bring a good mix of good technique & their famous fighting spirit - some say infamous, given that Uruguay have lost their heads in past international tournaments when things go against them. I am not sure much has changed, & that dubious temperament could well haunt Uruguay again at this World Cup. Uruguay have not made much impact on the World Cup since reaching the semi-finals of the 1970 edition, & their form in the World Cup qualifiers suggests that they are not good travelers - another reason for not being confident in Uruguay's chances of getting out of the group.

Prediction:
1: France
2: South Africa
3 (equal): Mexico, Uruguay


Group B: Argentina, Nigeria, South Korea & Greece

Argentina find themselves with some sort of a reunion in this group - they have played all 3 group opponents in the group stage of past World Cups. They had South Korea in their group at the 1986 tournament, & beat the Koreans en route to winning the tournament. They had both Nigeria & Greece in the 1994 edition, & beat both teams in typical stylish fashion before crashing our prematurely in the round of 16. They had Nigeria again in their group in the 2002 edition, & won that match in a tournament that the Argies would otherwise prefer to forget.


Well then, just because Argentina have beaten all 3 group opponents in previous World Cups, will that now guarantee them 3 wins out of 3 in the group stage? Quite possibly, though it will not be easy. Argentina clearly has the best attack in this group, & probably the entire World Cup. Look at the forwards they can choose from: Tevez, Aguero, Higuain, Diego Milito, & of course Barcelona's wizard Leo Messi, best footballer in the world. These are top drawer attackers playing at the highest level in European club football, & all have scored regularly during the past season, too. At least 2 of these forwards will have to start on the bench, so coach Maradona clearly has an embarrassment of riches. What other coaches would give to have just some of these forwards! In particular, Messi will be trying to show that he can play as well for his country as he does for FC Barcelona. If he can do that, Argentina can go all the way.

Argentina's midfield is potentially strong too, though it lacks the cohesiveness of Spain's midfield. Look out for wide midfielder Angel Di Maria to star. He scored in the Beijing Olympic football final against Nigeria to help Argentina win football gold. Don't bet against him repeating the dose against Nigeria in the World Cup. I hope young central midfielder Javier Pastore gets some game time - he is a superb talent, & could be Argentina's new playmaker. Argentina's problem is in defence, though Maradona seem to have come up with a settled back line during their 1-0 exhibition win away to Germany recently. Argentina may have struggled in the qualifying matches, but at least they did eventually make it. And even though doubts still persist over Maradona's suitability as Argentina coach (his inexperience, lack of tactical nous & all that), Argentina should have more than enough talent & firepower to win the group.

It is anybody's guess how Nigeria fares in this group. The Super Eagles, one of Africa's biggest names, are unpredictable & appointed Swedish coach Lars Lagerback just a few months ago. He replaced the previous coach who was dismissed after Nigeria's third place finish at the 2010 African Nations Cup was not considered good enough. So expectations are high among the Nigerian fans. Whether Lagerback can meet them remains to be seen. He will certainly try to instill Northern European discipline & work ethic into the Nigerian side. Nigeria are certainly blessed with lots of speed: Yakubu, Martins, Odemwingie & Obasi are particularly swift & dangerous. They will rely on this pace to try to unsettle their opponents. When they played Argentina in the Beijing Olympics final, their pacey attackers did cause Argentina plenty of headaches before they went down 1-0. Nigeria's biggest problem could be in midfield, which lacks the creativity of former player Jay-Jay Okocha. Jon Obi Mikel is out through injury & the Super Eagles will miss his services. Lagerback could make Nigeria a well-drilled unit. That may not be enough to keep out Messi & co, but could be enough to take them past Greece & South Korea.

South Korea will make their seventh consecutive appearance at the World Cup finals. They carry the hopes of the Asian continent with them, & will be keen to show that they can mix it up with the big boys. They were consistent & convincing in the World Cup qualifiers, topping their tough group ahead of North Korea (who also qualified) & finishing well above the likes of Iran & Saudi Arabia. It's one thing to outshine your Asian rivals, but the likes of Argentina & Nigeria will present even more formidable challenges. Can South Korea make that step up in quality? Coach Huh Jung-Moo promises his side will try their utmost to get to the next stage. One interesting trivia: Huh was part of South Korea's 1986 World Cup, & he marked Diego Maradona when the Koreans played Argentina in the group stage. Both players will be reunited again in this group, this time as coaches of their respective teams. South Korea reached the semi-finals when they co-hosted the tournament in 2002, but crashed at the group stage in the 2006 edition. I believe they will challenge Nigeria & Greece strongly for second place. They will bring sound technical ability, stamina (they are said to be one of the fittest teams), & never-say-die attitude, qualities which might just help them reach the knock-out stage. Even if they don't make it, they will certainly not be pushovers.

As for Greece, it will most probably be a case of "same old, same old". German coach Otto Rehagel, who masterminded Greece's shock Euro 2004 triumph, is still in charge. Therefore, the "same old" defensive tactics will again be on display. Some of the "same old" Euro 2004 heroes will still be around, although Rehagel has slowly been introducing new players to the squad. Greece may feel that they have something to prove. After winning Euro 2004, they failed to qualify for the 2006 World Cup, & flopped at Euro 2008 where they relinquished their European trophy at the group stage with 3 defeats out of 3 group games. The element of surprise, which helped Greece in Euro 2004, is well & truly gone, & opponents now know what to expect. Though none of the 3 group opponents will underestimate them, I cannot see Greece coming up with something new to make the group stage. Then again, everyone said that at Euro 2004. Greece's possible advantage this time round is that they play Argentina last, & so they would hope that the South Americans win their first 2 games & rest some players against Greece. But if Argentina enter that final group game needing to achieve a result, then Greece will really be up against it against Messi, Tevez & co.

Prediction:
1: Argentina
2: Nigeria
3: South Korea
4: Greece



Group C: England, USA, Algeria, Slovenia

England are always expected to go far in international tournaments. Since winning their only World Cup to date in 1966 (when they were hosts), England have not reached another final. They reached the quarter-finals a few times (including the last 2 World Cups) & the semi-finals just once, in 1990. Hopes are high that the English can go at least as far as the last 4 this time round. And they have cause for optimism after a strong qualifying campaign which saw them comfortably top their European group, & also after being presented with a favourable World Cup draw. USA, Algeria & Slovenia should not fill the English with trepidation.

In Fabio Capello, England have one of the best & most renowned coaches in the world. Capello can call on a squad with quality and extensive experience at the highest level. That is because a lot of England's players play for the Big 4 Premier League clubs (Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal & Liverpool), & so they have considerable experience playing in the UEFA Champions League. Having said that, much of England's hopes depend on Wayne Rooney's form. When he is on song, England look that much more threatening. They can call upon some distinguished players in midfield, like Gerrard, Lampard, Milner & Carrick. In defence, they will miss Rio Ferdinand (injured during pre-World Cup training), & so will need John Terry to be at his best & the likes of Ledley King to step up. England should really top this group.

Second place is definitely up for grabs; any of the other 3 teams could get it. USA will fancy their chances, & rightly so. They are always improving, & the growth of the MLS has helped add to the American talent pool. They did extremely well at the 2009 Confederations Cup - shocking Spain in the semi-final & only lost 3-2 to Brazil in the final after being 2-0 up at half-time. The Americans will show athleticism & endeavour, & seem to have toughened up their defence. The creativity will come from mostly Landon Donovan (now playing in wide midfield position), Fulham's Clint Dempsey, & Benny Feilhaber. Jozy Altidore (who is battling to be fit for the first game against England), Edson Buddle (2 goals versus Australia in recent friendly) & Herculez Gomez will battle it out for the forward spots. Many fancy USA to finish second. But it seems a lot of attention is being given to the game against England, their first of the tournament. If the Americans get too obsessed with beating England & not pay enough attention to the other 2 opponents, then they could be in trouble.

Algeria will make their first World Cup appearance since 1986. After the long absence, they will be happy just to be taking part, & arrive with little expectations & little pressure to perform. But look at this. Algeria are the only Arabic country to be taking part at this World Cup, & they are in the same group as USA & England! There is some political overtones there, & football fans from the Arab world will certainly be cheering for Algeria, especially against those 2 Western countries. Results in pre-World Cup friendlies have been mixed (including a thumping by Ireland). Algeria's lack of expectations could work in their favour. After all, they already did the hard part of successfully battling & edging out arch-rivals Egypt in dramatic, heart-stopping qualifiers in November 2009 (they lost in Cairo, but bounced back against all odds in the playoff in neutral Sudan). Those matches show that Algeria's footballers have the strength of character to fight to overcome adversity. So if the Algerians can survive against the more fancied Egyptians in crunch matches, then they will believe that they can overcome USA & Slovenia (though England will most likely prove too strong). And I think that strength of character will help the North Africans finish second. On a good day, they can play good football, too. That can be put down to French influence.

Slovenia will play in their second World Cup - they made their debut in Japan & Korea in 2002. Even though they upset the much more fancied Russia in the playoffs to reach South Africa, Slovenia will arrive as one of the weaker European teams in the tournament. Who are their stars? They don't have any real stars. They do have some useful players, but they will not rely on any particular players in the same way as they relied on Zlatko Zahovic at the 2002 tournament, which proved disastrous for them. Slovenia are actually the smallest nation taking part in South Africa, & so will be seen as underdogs. Team spirit will be their key strength - after all, it did help them overcome a superior Russian side en route to the tournament. They do have the advantage of playing England last, as England might rest players if they qualify for the knockout stages after their first 2 group games.

Prediction:
1: England
2: Algeria
3: USA
4: Slovenia



Group D: Germany, Australia, Serbia, Ghana

This is a tough group! And interestingly, from this group, 2 Chelsea midfielders will be missing the tournament through injury: Germany's Michael Ballack & Ghana's Michael Essien. Germany will arguably cope with Ballack's absence rather better than Ghana will cope with Essien's.

Germany are usually thereabouts when it comes to the World Cup. They get things right much more often than they get things wrong. Discipline, cool heads under pressure, never-say-die attitude, strong team spirit, meticulous preparation are always associated with German sides - qualities which have helped Germany win multiple World Cups & European Championships. They have that ability to capitalise on opportunities that come their way, even when they are outplayed by more talented opponents, & they can never be written off. Germany traditionally bring experienced sides to the tournament, & are always fancied to go far.

Much of everything mentioned above will again be true of Germany this time round, with one exception: the current German side are quite young, & inexperienced compared with say, England or Brazil. When they hosted the last tournament in 2006, the then-coach Klinsmann turned Germany into a more open & attacking outfit than past German sides. That attacking trend looks set to continue. It might be partly because Germany's defenders these days are not as good as they were in the past (where is today's equivalent of Kohler, Buchwald & Reuter, for instance?). It is probably also because Germany is blessed with a wealth of talented youngsters in attacking midfield & forward roles. That will more than compensate for Ballack's absence. Schweinsteiger now has a chance to stamp his place in central midfield. Young attacking midfielders such as Thomas Muller & Mesut Ozil (or Turkish descent) will expect some game time. Ozil in particular is extremely talented & could be one of the breakout stars of the World Cup. Then, there is Luca Podolski, who can play at left midfield or up front. All in all, I expect Germany to be superior to their opponents, & top the group.

Second place will most likely be a tussle between Ghana & Serbia. I don't think Essien's absence makes Serbia favourites to finish second. True, Essien will be missed. But Ghana can alter their tactics slightly (their Serbian coach is renowned for his tactical nous) & have other players they can look at. It should be remembered that Ghana reached the African Nations Cup earlier this year with a young squad, without the services of the midfield trio of Essien, Stephen Appiah & Sulley Muntari & the likes of Paintsil. They only lost 1-0 to a strong Egypt side. Appiah, Muntari, Paintsil etc will return to bolster the Ghanaian side at the World Cup. Ghana's World Cup debut in 2006 saw them qualify for the round of 16, where they fell to Brazil, but not before showing some enterprise & causing Brazil some problems. They should be confident of reaching the knockout stages again. Plyaying on their home continent, Ghana will be able to count on huge support, & that could be another factor in their favou.

Serbia did well in the qualifiers to qualify for the tournament. They will arrive determined to do much better than their disappointing showing at the last World Cup, where they lost all group games & finished bottom of an admittedly tough group (they had Argentina, Netherlands & Ivory Coast then). Balkan sides are traditionally volatile, & blow hot & cold - they either excel with flying colours or flop badly. Will that temperament get the better of Serbia? The coach Antic & the fans would certainly hope not. They certainly don't lack the talent to make an impact, with key players including defenders Vidic & Kolarov, midfielders Krasic, Stankovic & Kuzmanovic & 6ft 7in beanpole attacker Zigic. They look to keep possession well, & raid from the flanks via their wide midfielders. They are strong in set pieces, too - more than 1/3 of their goals in the qualifiers came from free-kicks & corners. If things go well, then Serbia could well qualify for the knockout stage.

And finally, there is Australia. Qualifying for the 2006 World Cup (their first for 32 years) has lead to a boom in popularity of the Socceroos, a boom which has continued after they qualify for South Africa comfortably from the Asian zone. There is no denying they have done well in the qualifiers, keeping lots of clean sheets in the process. The abundance of clean sheets is due to the defensive tactics of Pim Verbeek, their Dutch coach. Indeed, such tactics make Verbeek very unDutch-like. It is well & good to keep clean sheets & pick up points against the likes of Uzbekistan & Qatar, but such conservatism will not get Australia anywhere at the World Cup. I think this will be why Australia will finish rock bottom of the group. Verbeek raised some eyebrows with certain omissions from the World Cup squad, & he will stubbornly stick to playing 1 upfront.. I'm glad, though, that he selected young flexible midfielder/attacker Dario Vidosic (formerly of Brisbane Roar!). Vidosic should be given game time, to showcase his talent. If Verbeek does that, then Australia will be more watchable, even if it doesn't guarantee victory. But I cannot see that happening.

Prediction:
1: Germany
2: Ghana
3: Serbia
4: Australia




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